Commentary: Who'll survive the leap from DRAMs?

It's no surprise that two DRAM specialists—Elpida and Qimonda —have separately expanded into new markets of late, or that Hynix, Micron and others are scrambling to follow suit. The deep downturn that gripped the DRAM segment last year shows no signs of letting go.

The question is whether these companies are moving in the right product directions. Some market watchers question who'll be left standing when the ugliness is over.


Here's my take on the winners and losers:


Elpida

In March, Japan's Elpida Memory Inc. entered the silicon foundry business in partnership with Taiwan's United Microelectronics Corp. The foundry venture will utilize Elpida's fab in Japan.

Prospects: Poor. Elpida is losing money in DRAMs. The foundry business is an art form; it's a tough field, especially for neophytes. UMC could help Elpida, but here's the problem: The companies are looking for foundry customers in Japan—and Japanese chip makers generally prefer to use their own fabs. They don't really trust the foundries for high-margin goods.


Hynix

South Korean DRAM rival Hynix Semiconductor Inc. moved into NAND flash several years ago, and recently it reentered the CMOS image sensor business.

Prospects: Neutral. Like most DRAM makers, Hynix is losing vast sums of money. Its entry into the CMOS imager market is not going to scare the likes of incumbents Micron, OmniVision, STMicroelectronics and Toshiba. But Seoul will continue to support the company. Hynix is like the Terminator: It just won't die.


Micron

Several years ago, U.S.-based DRAM maker Micron Technology Inc. moved into CMOS image sensors and NAND flash. In the beginning, the strategy looked promising. Now, the company is caught in the perfect storm: All three of its businesses are down.

Prospects: Cloudy. Micron has spun out its image sensor business, ostensibly to find a joint-venture partner—or maybe to get rid of the operation. Micron's manufacturing partner in NAND, Intel Corp., may not invest in the technology once its obligations are up.

Look to Taiwan for a savior. Micron already has formed a joint DRAM venture with Taiwan's Nanya Technology Corp. Is a flash venture with Nanya next, or even one in CMOS image sensors? There are also rumors that Micron is working with another Taiwan DRAM house: ProMos Technologies Corp.


Qimonda

Germany's Infineon AG wants desperately to sell its stake in loss-plagued Qimonda AG. But Qimonda is looking for ways to stay relevant. It has recently forged a manufacturing venture with Elpida and with Taiwan's Winbond Electronics Corp. And just days ago, Qimonda shocked the industry by jumping into the market for solar cells.

Prospects: Poor. Infineon can no longer keep Qimonda on the books. It will most likely sell the DRAM operation to Micron or Samsung. And Qimonda's entry into the solar cell market is too little, too late. There are already too many solar cell suppliers, and the company has little or no technology to offer—just more capacity.


Samsung

Let's not forget Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd., which keeps rolling over the competition in DRAM and NAND flash. It is also becoming a powerhouse in NOR, much to the chagrin of players like Numonyx and Spansion.

Prospects: Good. But even mighty Samsung faces challenging times. The DRAM, NOR and NAND markets look poor this year. Samsung's long-awaited efforts in the logic market have been a bust. It has failed in processors, MCUs and communications. And the jury is still out as to whether Samsung can be a contender in the foundry market.

To its credit, Samsung has done well in MP3 chips, notably for Apple's iPod. But the margins are tight, and Apple is a high-maintenance business partner. There are rumors that Apple refused to use Samsung's solid-state drive in a Mac, claiming lackluster performance. Apple is reportedly using one from STEC Inc. instead.


出處/From：[EETimes]

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酷評：my take,這年頭，還在只玩DRAM的（好像也沒有了），必死無疑。要是有一些周邊生意，well，茍延殘喘。所以說，何苦一定要這麽執著呢，memory，不玩也罷...

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